FIVE REASONS WHY TIGER WILL WIN

1) Despite shooting 10 over par at Carnoustie last time, Tiger finished just four shots out of a play-off. Paul Lawrie, Davis Love and Scott Verplank all carded rounds in the 60s on Sunday and had Woods followed suit he would been hoisting aloft his first claret jug. Woods took 17 more putts than Van de Velde that week, six more than Lawrie and 10 more than Leonard so tee to green he played Carnoustie extremely well. He CAN clearly handle this course and a hotter week on the greens will get the job done this time.

2) He loves the creativity of links golf and now has 11 years experience of Open Championships. It took him five years to bag his first but he's now won the last two so he's well and truely got it sussed.

3) Woods has finished 1-1-2-2 in his last four majors and but for inspired performances from Zach Johnson and Angel Cabrera would have all for trophies on his mantlepiece again. Surprise first-time major winners can't keep popping up and with Tiger's traditional foes - Mickelson, Singh, Els and Goosen - managing just one top 10 between them in the US Masters and US Open and Europe still majorless since 1999 there is a lack of genuine rivals who can beat him.

4) One of Tiger's major motivations is to beat the records of the incredible Jack Nicklaus. The Golden Bear's haul of 18 majors is target number one and a win here will take Tiger to within five. But how about this for getting one over Jack... Nicklaus took two attempts to win his first Major as a dad. Woods will want to do it one.

5) Since the start of the century, Woods has played in 28 Majors and won 10. That's a strike rate of better than one in three so having come up short in his last two majors he's due!

FIVE REASONS WHY TIGER WON'T WIN

1) Tiger's three Open wins have been on low scoring par 72 courses. He won with -19 (269) at St Andrews in 2000, -14 (274) at St Andrews in 2005 and -18 (270) at Hoylake in 2006. Carnoustie is a much, much tougher par 71 and Tiger could only finish seventh there in 1999. Aside from those three winning years, Woods has never broken 280 in eight other Open visits so in difficult years he's beatable.

2) Zach Johnson and Angel Cabrera have relegated Woods to second place in the first two majors of 2007. This is likely to have a knock-on effect and give confidence to the rest of the field that they too can oust Tiger in a tight finish.

3) Woods has won all his 12 majors from the front, starting the final round leading or tied for the lead. If he's on the wrong side of the draw and gets the worst of the weather - always a risk in an Open - he'll be playing catch-up from the off and may struggle to get his nose in front after 54 holes. If he's trailing, history suggests he's not very good at coming with a charge.

4) Having just become a dad, the sleepless nights will really have kicked in by July 19 and Woods has also had the added stress of hosting his own high-profie US Tour event - the AT&T National - for the first time. He never looked like winning that and finished sixth. Yes, he has amazing powers of recovery but Woods has more on his plate this year than ever before.

5) Okay, we're struggling. Erm, Woods has never won a Major at a venue beginning with C!!!